Here's the translation of the provided text into English: "Be cautious of things that defy common sense.
Remember years ago when LeEco went public, Tencent's Ma Huateng said at a meeting with the China Securities Regulatory Commission that many internet companies listed on the A-share market don't even make the cut.
At that time, many people didn't understand what he meant, but now you see the point: if the top-ranked company can't go public on the A-share market, where can those who don't make the cut go?
Later, everyone saw LeEco delisted.
If LeEco hadn't gone public, many people wouldn't have known about the company.
Really, my colleagues at the brokerage firm only looked for what LeEco was after it went public.
At that time, we saw all kinds of PPs and whether we wanted to come or not.
Then came Baofeng Technology, as the world entered the mobile internet era, but it brought a player from the PC internet era.
The final result, as everyone has seen, was that Baofeng Technology reached its peak upon listing and was delisted within a few years.
Now, everyone complains about the continuous decline of new energy and the trashing of lithium, I think everyone should think carefully about the importance of lithium in the future.
Let's not talk much about this for now, as some friends can't stand me talking about lithium.
Let's talk about economic issues.
The world economy has entered the Eastern era, the Asian era.
Every time I say this, the private messages I receive are all curses, calling me arrogant.
Even when I write about cross-strait issues, the replies are all curses.
I realized that the poison is not only in the cross-strait area.
Back to the topic: Germany's GDP has collapsed because its automotive industry has been surpassed by China, and agriculture has been hit hard by the conflict, leading to a surge in electricity prices.
Data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that Germany was the worst-performing large economy in the world last year.
The organization recently predicted that developed economies will grow by an average of 1.5% in 2023, with a GDP contraction of 0.3%.
Meanwhile, emerging markets and developing economies will grow by 4%.
The main reason for Germany's economic collapse is that its automotive industry has been surpassed by China, and its export scale has plummeted after being surpassed by China in 2022.
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has led to a rise in energy prices, an increase in electricity in Germany, and agriculture can't stand it.
The double conflict has led to a recession in GDP.
Japan's economy is also about to collapse, and the current stock market rise may be fake.
Don't believe it?
I can analyze it one by one.
Do you remember the continuous 30-day rise in the A-share market in January 2018?
At that time, the rise was driven by the banking industry, and many people, including me, were confused.
In 2018, the number of shares unlocked reached 3 trillion, and there was no good news, so how could it rise continuously for a month, and it was before the Spring Festival.
The cycle before the Spring Festival has always been difficult to rise.
This abnormality was later discovered to be because the funds were afraid of the impact of the unlocking and turned to hide in the bank, and at the same time, it was expected that the dollar would cut interest rates, driving funds into the banking sector, ushering in a small spring.
But the later trend was a continuous decline until October, when it was stimulated by policy stimulus and dollar interest rate cuts.
Now, the Japanese stock market continues to rise, but in terms of the economy, the automotive industry has been surpassed by China, and China's automotive export scale has surpassed Japan to become the world's first in 2023.
Surpassed Germany in 2022, surpassed Japan in 2023, and directly exploded from 2020, crossing a 1 million level in one year, and in 2023, it directly crossed two 1 million levels.
Crazy and invincible.
In 2021 and 2022, China's automotive export volume successively reached 2 million and 3 million levels.
In 2023, it even crossed two million-level steps, exporting 5.221 million vehicles, an increase of 57.4% year-on-year.
Japan's nuclear wastewater into the sea, agriculture is gone.
The automotive industry has been surpassed by China and is about to be scrapped.
Then you tell me that the stock market has been hitting new highs, okay, believe it and chase it.
I tell you, this is their institutions setting up a trap for self-rescue.
It's about to pull up quickly to attract followers and clear up to deal with the collapse of GDP.
Buffett also bought the Japanese stock market, is he a fool?
No, he's not stupid, but he's also American capital, he's harvesting, and now it's a competition to see who gets hit.
On April 11, 2023, Warren Buffett, the founder of Berkshire Hathaway, emphasized in an interview with the Japanese Economic News in Tokyo that he was optimistic about Japanese stocks and would consider increasing his investment in Japanese stocks.
According to Buffett, he has increased his stake in Japan's five major trading companies to 7.4% and said that this is Berkshire Hathaway's largest investment outside the United States.
These five major trading companies are: Itochu Corporation, Marubeni Corporation, Mitsubishi Corporation, Mitsui & Co., Ltd., and Sumitomo Corporation.
As a symbol of low valuation, the low PBR (price-to-book ratio) of Japanese stocks has been pointed out.
Below 1 times indicates that the stock price is lower than the value obtained by dissolving the company.
More than half of the listed companies in Japan are below 1 times, falling into a rare low valuation in the world.
Buffett publicly said that there are three reasons for buying Japan: First, the leaders have fallen below the net value, and Japanese stocks appear to be undervalued.
Second, Buffett wants to diversify investments because Buffett's main funds are all invested in the United States, and 40% are dependent on Apple's stock.
Japan is the world's third-largest economy, and Buffett, who is good at stock speculation, will not go to the 10th largest economy.
Why doesn't Buffett come to China?
Because everyone knows that Buffett also has to listen.
Third, Buffett is optimistic about the quality of Japanese enterprises' management, which is actually a solidification of Japan, and the monopoly of the leaders is huge.
Overall, it is not difficult to find that the rise of the Japanese stock market is driven by the index of each leader.
The promoter is Buffett, and the high degree of solidification of the Japanese economy, the leaders are very hard, and small enterprises can't stand it in a crisis, and the expansion of the leaders is greater.
Data shows that more than 8,000 small and medium-sized enterprises in Japan went bankrupt in 2023.
This is the most intuitive reaction.
The small fish die and the big whales rise.
But it's too difficult to fall.
Japan and the UK are very solidified.
Japan secretly buys land in Brazil because Africa is the territory of the UK and France.
Japan can only choose Brazil.
The Japanese automotive industry involves more than 5 million people.
If the Japanese automotive industry is destroyed, the Japanese economy will fall directly.
Agriculture is gone, industry is over, and what's left is small movies and games, and China's game industry will begin to rise.
All industries in China will be the first, and this is the characteristic of the leader.
Look at the United States, Buffett made his fortune by relying on the wind.
We now have this opportunity, and the future super first economy will be China.
There may not be a Buffett, but there will be a corresponding scale of state-owned financial institutions.
The Japanese stock market is now soaring, and everyone can see clearly now.
It's just that it's not falling, Buffett is in to do their leaders.
Pinch the seven inches and drive the index up.
And a large number of small businesses go bankrupt, which is to drive this index.
The future of the Japanese stock market, the control may not be Japan, but due to cultural factors, surface work still needs to be done.
If Buffett leaves, the Japanese stock market will collapse directly.
The scale of the Japanese stock market is small, Buffett will leave earlier, and if he doesn't leave, he will be involved together.
This year, 2024, if Buffett doesn't leave, the Japanese automotive industry falls, and he can't leave.
A-shares also need to contract, and now it's very similar to 2018.
Like 2018, there is more than 3 trillion of unlocking pressure in 2024.
Like 2018, the dollar is going to cut interest rates in 2024.
Like 2018, the interest rate cut is only expected to be a small cut.
But it's hard to say what will happen later.
As soon as Trump took office, he canceled all conflicts and withdrew from various groups, and our country was forced to take over.
Later, you will understand that when the position matches, there will be a very magical phenomenon, and all flowers bloom together.
Fully promote the Belt and Road Initiative, quickly strengthen digital currency, and pay attention to what the country said, the conditions for a financial power need to have a strong currency.
This is the most straightforward track.
A-shares will be internationalized, but generally, we have to take a good position before letting the water in.
Overall, the rise of A-shares in the future will also be like the Japanese stock market, like the US stock market, and the index will rise, but it will be driven by blue chips.
So now considering the layout, the reasonable direction should be high-growth leaders, high-growth industry leaders in the early stage, pay attention to the industry's performance is still in the initial stage of the outbreak.
New energy, medicine, automotive industry, etc.
Lithium haha, don't scold me, I love him, because I believe it is the future of oil.
Even think that a lot of lithium now has a great space for layout temptation.
Don't say it.
Follow, help you deconstruct the economy, teach you to reveal the capital password."
