Here is the translation of the provided text into English: 1.
Gold Prices Hit Record Highs, Fed Officials: Not Ruling Out Further Substantial Rate Cuts Gold prices have been on an upward trajectory this year.
Following the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut, spot gold prices broke through $2,600 on Friday, setting a historical high.
On Monday, it briefly surpassed the $2,630 threshold before falling back to $2,628.41, continuing to set new records.
Currently, investment banks such as UBS and Goldman Sachs have given a target price of $2,700, and more hedge funds both domestically and internationally predict that surpassing the $3,000 mark is just a matter of time.
Juan Carlos Artigas, the head of research at the World Gold Council, stated to First Financial that the price of gold is driven by four major factors: the level of economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, the opportunity cost (interest rates), and market momentum, which need to be assessed comprehensively.
He said that in the past two years, the price of gold seems to have become immune to high interest rates and a strong dollar, continuously setting new highs even when interest rates are high.
However, it is not entirely immune.
High interest rates have led to net outflows from ETFs, with the outflow in the first half of this year still being the highest since 2013, with significant outflows in Europe and North America, while Asia is the only region that has seen inflows.
He believes that geopolitical factors have overshadowed high interest rate factors, driving gold prices higher.
In addition, several Federal Reserve officials did not rule out the possibility of further substantial rate cuts on Monday, noting that current interest rates still exert significant pressure on the U.S. economy.
Currently, the market is turning its attention to the core PCE price index and jobless claims data to be released later this week.
Chartered Financial Analyst Zhou Chunzhe: The Fed's rate cut cycle, the global central bank gold buying spree, and geopolitical risks have jointly pushed up gold prices.
The Fed's 50 basis point rate cut marks the entry of global central banks into a rate cut cycle, further increasing the attractiveness of gold to capital flows.
Moreover, India's gold imports in August reached a historical high of $10.06 billion.
At the same time, the market is concerned about the tense situation between Israel and Hezbollah in the Middle East, and gold has gained price support due to increased demand for safe-haven assets.
Therefore, the upward trend in gold prices will continue, and it may attract new buyers, but there are still risks of short-term volatility, and a cautious attitude is needed.
Guo Feng, Chief Investment Advisor at Northeast Securities: The Fed's rate cut stimulates the short-term strength of precious metals, and the market is expected to become more volatile.
The performance of related resource stocks lags behind the price of precious metals, and attention should be paid to the actual demand changes behind the divergence.
2.
ECB Rate Cut Expectations Rise!
Eurozone September Manufacturing PMI Hits Yearly Low, Germany and France Both Accelerate Contraction The Eurozone's September manufacturing PMI initial value was 44.8, lower than the expected 45.6; the September service industry PMI initial value was 50.5, lower than the expected 52.1; the September composite PMI initial value was 48.9, lower than the expected 50.5 and the previous value of 51, indicating that business activity in the Eurozone fell for the first time in seven months.
Germany's manufacturing difficulties have intensified, with the September manufacturing PMI initial value at 40.3, lower than the expected 42.3; France's service industry shrank, with the September service industry PMI initial value at 48.3, significantly lower than the expected 53.1 and the previous value of 55.
After the data was released, market expectations for an ECB rate cut increased.
The euro fell 0.7% after the data release, to 1.1085 euros.
Eurozone government bonds rose, with the yield on 10-year German bonds falling 4 basis points at one point.
The German government bond yield curve inverted for the first time since November 2022.
Chartered Financial Analyst Zhou Chunzhe: Germany and France, as the two most important economies in the Eurozone, account for 47.9% of the Eurozone's GDP, and their economic performance will significantly affect the economic trend of the Eurozone.
Poor manufacturing performance is an important factor in Germany's economic weakness.
After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Germany has been facing a shortage of energy supply, which has severely affected the performance of energy-intensive manufacturing.
France's service industry shrank again after strong growth in August.
As the Paris Olympics approach their end, the number of customers has decreased, and consumption is generally sluggish.
Weak economic data has led to expectations of a second 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB on September 12, and expectations of continued rate cuts within the year have increased.
Currently, traders estimate a 40% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October.
The Eurozone needs to release liquidity through continued rate cuts to promote economic growth.
Guo Feng, Chief Investment Advisor at Northeast Securities: Both European and American PMIs have fallen back, and expectations for economic recovery are being tested, with further rate cuts expected in the future.
Waiting for domestic economic stimulus policies.
3.
Nike Replaces CEO to Address Weak Performance, Shares Rise Over 6.8% On Friday Beijing time, Nike announced that it would replace its CEO, with long-time Nike executive Elliott Hill taking over as the group's global president and CEO from John Donahoe.
Thus, the position of "leader" of the world's largest sports goods group, which has been in turmoil for several months, has been settled.
Nike's stock price rose 6.84% that day, fell back 0.38% overnight, but has generally declined nearly 20% this year.
The biggest problem Donahoe faced was the stagnation of Nike's performance during his tenure.
The company's most recent fiscal year 2024 (June 1, 2023 - May 31, 2024) global revenue was $51.386 billion, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year at constant exchange rates.
In terms of global volume, Nike is still more than twice that of its arch-rival Adidas and about six times that of Anta.
However, Adidas's performance in the recent second fiscal quarter grew by more than 10%, and Anta was still able to maintain a 13.8% increase in the first half of the year.
After the change, Evercore ISI Group raised its target price for Nike from $105 to $110, maintaining an "outperform" rating.
Wells Fargo raised its target price for Nike from $86 to $95, maintaining an "overweight" rating.
However, J.P. Morgan put Nike on the negative catalyst watch list, with a target price of $80, lower than the overnight closing price of $86.19.
Chartered Financial Analyst Zhou Chunzhe: Nike's "DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) strategy" proposed in 2020 has led to a distancing of the company's relationship with wholesale partners, resulting in a significant decline in Nike's wholesale business revenue and opening the door for competitors to seize market share from Nike.
At the same time, the reduction in communication with wholesale partners has also affected Nike's product innovation advantage.
After all, the growth in direct-to-consumer online revenue cannot make up for the significant decline in wholesale revenue, leading to low performance.
This time, the direct appointment of a "veteran" who has been retired for four years as CEO aims to repair and improve the relationship with wholesale partners.
How to balance the relationship between online business and wholesaler business will also be a huge challenge for the new CEO.
The divergence in the stock prices of several investment banks after the change of leadership also reflects the market's uncertainty about Nike's performance.
Guo Feng, Chief Investment Advisor at Northeast Securities: The current consumer environment still faces uncertainty.
Attention can be paid to the textile and apparel leaders with better mid-term performance recovery and the potential for continuous market share growth.
Shanxi Securities Textile and Apparel 2024H1 Mid-Year Report Summary: In the first half of 2024, domestic sports and entertainment products saw double-digit growth in retail sales, and sportswear consumption showed resilience.
High-end sports brands such as Descente, Kailas, and Saucony achieved rapid revenue growth, and mass sports brand 361 degrees also performed well in retail turnover.
The sportswear industry's retail discounts were stable and improving in the first half of the year, with controllable inventory levels.
Continue to recommend Anta Sports, which has a multi-brand matrix and stable operations, and suggest paying attention to 361 degrees, Xtep International, Bosideng, and Li Ning.
4.
Is Nuclear Power About to "Bloom"?
Rumor Has It That 14 Global Financial Giants Will Support Nuclear Energy Financing It is reported that 14 of the world's largest banks and financial institutions, including Bank of America, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, are expected to commit to increasing their support for nuclear energy, with governments and industries in many countries hoping that this move will provide financial support for the latest wave of nuclear power plant construction.
BNP Paribas said that without nuclear power, the world cannot achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.
Barclays Bank believes that nuclear power can solve the intermittency problems of wind and solar energy.
As technology companies seek more electricity to power their data centers and promote their artificial intelligence ambitions, nuclear power is seen as a possible direction for development.
At the same time, fund managers from several asset management companies also expressed optimism about the huge potential of nuclear energy, and nuclear energy-related stocks have played a role in their investment portfolios.
In the view of BlackRock Investment Institute under BlackRock, nuclear energy is seen as part of the energy mix needed for the large data centers that the technology industry is building, and it is expected that by the end of this decade, with the growth of AI adoption, electricity demand may at least double, or even quadruple.
Robert Lancastle, a portfolio manager at J O Hambro, said that without nuclear power, the world is unlikely to have enough energy to support the continued development of artificial intelligence.
Chartered Financial Analyst Zhou Chunzhe: Faced with the huge energy consumption behind AI computing power, due to the significant advantages of nuclear power generation in cleanliness and stability, technology giants such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are actively seeking nuclear energy as an energy solution for their data centers.
Microsoft has just signed a 20-year nuclear power purchase agreement with Constellation Energy.
According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), global nuclear power generation is expected to reach 890GWe (10 billion watts of electrical power) by 2050, while the current global operating 439 nuclear power plants generate 395GWe, and up to an additional 550 nuclear power plants may be built during this period.
Historically, banks have been divided on the prospects of nuclear energy due to the complexity and risks of nuclear energy project financing, as well as whether such investments meet the organization's environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) standards.
If the 14 global financial giants can publicly support the development of nuclear energy, it will unlock the financing difficulties of the industry, providing strong financial support for the construction and development of nuclear energy, and the nuclear energy-related sectors can be watched.Northeast Securities Chief Investment Advisor Guo Feng: China's nuclear power operators are accelerating their layout, and the demand for equipment and new materials is expected.
SpaceX Mars Plan: Decide on manned missions after launching 5 unmanned Starships within two years!
Musk revealed his "Mars Plan" on Sunday.
He posted on X that the company plans to carry out about five unmanned Starship missions to Mars within two years.
He said that the schedule for the first manned flight mission will depend on the success of the unmanned missions.
If the unmanned missions land safely, then the manned mission will be launched within four years.
However, if SpaceX encounters challenges, the manned mission will be postponed for another two years.
The distance between Earth and Mars is not constant, and the launch window for Mars probes occurs approximately every 26 months.
Musk has always hoped that the Starship could achieve his goal of manufacturing a next-generation large multi-purpose spacecraft that can send people and cargo to the Moon in the later part of this decade and eventually fly to Mars.
Musk said earlier this year that the first unmanned Starship would land on Mars within five years, and the first humans would land on Mars within seven years.
He also previously stated that once the manned Mars exploration mission is successful, space travel to Mars will grow exponentially, with the goal of building a self-sufficient city on Mars within 20 years.
Chartered Financial Analyst Zhou Chunzhe: Despite facing many challenges and uncertainties, SpaceX's Mars exploration plan is advancing steadily.
Musk and his team are still confident in achieving this grand goal.
However, it is worth noting that NASA announced earlier this year that the Artemis 3 manned lunar landing mission, which includes the use of SpaceX's Starship, has been delayed to September 2026 for various reasons, and the mission was originally planned to be completed by the end of 2025.
The steady progress of SpaceX's Mars exploration plan gives us reason to believe that human exploration and colonization of Mars may come sooner than expected.
With the continuous advancement of technology, the performance of the Starship will continue to improve, providing strong support for future deep space exploration missions, and the related industries are worth looking forward to.
Northeast Securities Chief Investment Advisor Guo Feng: With the development of technology, aerospace activities have been frequent in recent years, and sky internet, communication satellites, and low-altitude economy are worth paying attention to.
