In modern society, a crucial logic to determine whether a person is rational and sober is: in their eyes, they won't just focus on the dazzling fireworks, but also see the real problems and risks.
This logic is extremely fitting for the current situation.
On September 18th, the Federal Reserve completed an unexpected interest rate cut, lowering by 50 basis points.
Since then, a new round of global interest rate cuts has fully begun, and the rumors circulating in the market are getting closer to the truth.
On September 20th, the market's general expectation for the LPR decline channel did not open, and the industry's evaluation is mixed.
However, after two days of discussion, a conclusion was reached: the banks' net interest margin has reached a critical value, and the logic of not reducing the LPR is mainly to leave room for the existing mortgage interest rates.
On the morning of September 24th, the three financial regulatory giants: the central bank governor, the chairman of the securities regulatory commission, and the director of the financial regulatory administration, gathered together.
The goal: financial support for high-quality economic development.
The relevant content and analysis have been published in a special issue by this account, so I won't repeat it here.
Of course, under a series of favorable policy combinations, the most excited are the various self-media and a group of speculative players.
Some foreign media with sensational headlines believe that this is China's "whatever it takes" moment.
But regardless, behind the latest policy combination, the country's urgent desire to stabilize the economy is certain.
Looking back at the logic at the beginning of the article, in fact, it is optimistic and positive to be optimistic about policy benefits on the information surface, but it is also necessary to see behind the policy stance, the driving force, and even the economic realities and pressure risks that can be said to force the national will to carry out strategies.
This article will be based on the latest policy heat of the central bank on September 24th, from a different perspective, to delve into and sort out the domestic economic environment behind the highly heated central bank's new policy combination on September 24th, and to conduct a deep, attitude, and evidence-based special discussion and analysis on the possible effects of the new policy on September 24th, and the changes and impacts on the economic body feeling brought to the residents.
After seeing too much of the big fish and meat, and the explosive benefits, let's change our taste, shall we?
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on September 19th, and the domestic market did not immediately follow.
During this period, various rumors and people have raised everyone's appetite, and for a while, some people were slapped in the face, some were wailing, and more people were confused: what should be done?
Should we continue to maintain our composure, or should we prepare for a big move?
On September 24th, the truth was revealed, that is, a big move was made, and everything that could be given was given, and what was not given before is now given.
Interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio cuts, and existing mortgage interest rate cuts... All at once, it can be called the largest stimulus plan after the epidemic.
The policy shift has finally begun, and the signal significance is very strong.
However, from the perspective of expected management, it is obvious that there is a significant deviation from the market consensus.
The "non-follow" of the LPR in September is based on the fact that the expectation of reducing existing mortgage interest rates is now fully open, leaving almost only the choice of how much to reduce and when to reduce for the central bank.
The economy is forcing banks to make choices.
Since entering the Chinese Dream cycle, China's decision-making has basically maintained a certain time difference with the US dollar, with a sense of being in sync but out of phase.
The original intention is to promote China's "strategic determination far beyond the US dollar", but in fact, it has been consuming the economy's expectations.
It is important to know that China's dependence on global trade is nearly 36%, and world trade is all in the guise of the US dollar.
In the economic society, without saying any macro terms, there is an important underlying logic and operation rule that will not change: costs and debts will never disappear, but will only be transferred, and finally digested by the economic role that takes over, through its own value output.
I don't know if the media and experts who praise the concept of policy determination all day long will know that the other side of the so-called policy determination is not "making the corporate sector suffer", but "making the people's livelihood sector suffer"?
The government is also an economic role, but it is a special one, mainly leading and distributing management, and cannot create real social wealth through its own operations.
On September 20th, the unemployment data for August was announced: the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 16-24 rose to 18.8%, and the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 25-29 rose to 6.9%.
This is bad news because the data has reached a historical peak, indicating that the economic problem is getting worse.
But at the same time, this is also a good signal, because the country suspended the publication of unemployment rates in the second half of 2023, and then began to publish adjusted segmented unemployment rates at the beginning of 2024.
This indicates that some key issues and contradictions, the attitude of the national level has begun to change.
The key to solving the problem is always to acknowledge the existence of the problem.
The country dares to publish more "ugly" data, which means that the country has probably already thought about the countermeasures.
Consumption does not need to be stimulated.
Because behind the unwillingness to consume is the lack of money in the pocket.
Therefore, to open the channel of internal circulation, it is necessary to solve the problem of money.
Then, there is the favorable policy combination of the central bank on September 24th.
Looking back at the favorable signal of September 24th, there is no doubt that it is a benefit, but this benefit is a late benefit, a benefit that has been called out for a long time, and it is more like a benefit squeezed by various realistic factors, rather than a benefit that is decisive and proactive.
The policy of September 24th actually has three key measures: first, to reduce the reserve requirement ratio; second, to reduce the existing mortgage interest rate; third, to support the development of the stock market.
Among these three policies, the ones that affect the real estate market are one and two.
Reducing the reserve requirement ratio will definitely increase the proportion of liquid money in the market, and the funds in the market will increase, but whether they can enter the real estate market, everyone can think about it from multiple angles, and the conclusion is that it is difficult to enter the real estate market; reducing the existing mortgage interest rate is a great thing, and those who bought houses at high interest rates a few years ago can now reduce the pressure.
Overall, for the current real estate market, from the policy level given by September 24th, there is not much benefit.
In other words, it cannot directly bring enough reversing power to the trend of the real estate market downturn and the pressure on housing prices.
The central bank cut interest rates and reserve requirements, and the existing mortgage rate was reduced by 0.5 points, and the down payment for the second set was reduced to 15%.
This is, of course, good news, and if it were in the past, it would also be a good benefit.
But everything has to follow the environment and look at the reality: at this point, it is just a drop in the bucket, a little rain.
The golden September is gone, and the silver October is definitely gone.
The policy is late, and the scale of the real estate market of 10 trillion this year is destined to be unable to be protected.
With such a delay and pull, the real estate market in 2024 is also like this, and this year is over.
Although from the current policy stance, the result of the game is still to save, rather than to let go.
But what the market and the final group that achieves debt transfer through real estate, that is, the residents, are most worried about is how long the power, effect, and impact of the policy combination of September 24th can last?
The policy of May 17th has been completely digested by the market, and now it has been calm.
Will this policy also be quickly digested and can't cause any waves?
You can't say that the new policy of 517 is not strong enough, the strength, determination, and sincerity are not enough?
Looking at the data, there is not much room for reversal in the real estate market in 2024.
Here is a simple combing for everyone: In September 2024 (actually August), the data published by the Bureau of Statistics showed a subtle change in the month-on-month data.
The price of new houses in first-tier cities fell by 0.3% month-on-month, and the decline was 0.2 percentage points narrower than the previous month.
The year-on-year decline was 4.2%, the same as the previous month.
Among them, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen fell by 3.6%, 10.1%, and 8.2% respectively, while Shanghai rose by 4.9%.
The price of new houses in the second and third-tier cities fell by 0.7% and 0.8% month-on-month respectively, and the decline was 0.1 percentage point wider than the previous month; the year-on-year decline was 5.3% and 6.2% respectively, and the decline was 0.5 and 0.4 percentage points wider than the previous month respectively.
I don't know if everyone has noticed that the price of new houses in Shanghai continued to lead the increase in August, and it is the only one in the first-tier cities.
The most important thing is that the price of new houses in Shanghai has been leading the increase for several months.
However, the price of second-hand houses in the first-tier cities fell by 0.9% month-on-month, and the decline was 0.4 percentage points wider than the previous month, among which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen fell by 1.0%, 0.6%, 0.7%, and 1.3% respectively.
The year-on-year decline was 9.4%, and the decline was 0.6 percentage points wider than the previous month, among which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen fell by 8.5%, 5.8%, 12.5%, and 10.8% respectively.
The sales price of second-hand residential buildings in the second and third-tier cities fell by 1.0% and 0.9% month-on-month respectively, and the decline was 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points wider than the previous month respectively; the year-on-year decline was 8.6% and 8.5% respectively, and the decline was 0.4 percentage points wider than the previous month respectively.
The price of second-hand houses is the most real price close to the market environment, and from the trend of the data, it is not exaggerated to say that the real estate market in China has accelerated the downward trend in August.
From this perspective, it is not contradictory and unreasonable to say that the central bank of September 24th launched a series of policy combinations to save the market, right?On September 24, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index (SCI) surged by 4.15%, marking the highest single-day gain in over four years.
In the current domestic public opinion environment, there is a group of people with an allergic constitution; they think that when they hear about easing monetary policy, housing prices will rise, and they start talking about buying houses, which is really unnecessary.
The biggest positive news on September 24 was the stock market.
It's not about today's stock market reaction, but the policy mix of the "924 New Deal" for the stock market.
If there are no surprises, it is a key turning point for China's financial market and assets, at least a signal of a phased bull market.
The basis behind this is the state's support for large funds to enter the stock market, and only with the national team leading can there be a big trend.
However, the real estate market is not the same.
A key essence: the real estate market needs a trend, and the national team must enter the market first; all policies that encourage retail investors are useless for the large market.
If you want to see some market performance in China's real estate market in October, just stimulating the home-buying group to spend money or helping those who have bought houses to reduce costs, basically, there is no hope.
One is the restriction of a core city (the four first-tier cities); the other is the state and local governments really putting money into the real estate market, whether it is for storage or to ensure the delivery of buildings, in the end, it is to let money go into the market, to reach more individuals without institutional background, and to strengthen purchasing power.
Otherwise, even with the extreme 0 down payment and 0 interest rate, without market pressure, it is unrealistic to want to reverse China's real estate market.
Looking at the performance of the stock and real estate markets in China's economic environment on September 24, the real estate market gained attention, while the stock market received real money stimulus and support.
It's good, after all, it's hard to have both fame and fortune, isn't it better than having nothing?
The key here, in a comprehensive sense, is that when the stock market is sluggish, the central bank sends warmth to stock investors and listed companies to support the bottom.
As for the real estate market, when will the existing housing loans be reduced, and how much can each person reduce?
Sorry, first listen to the sound, and then, wait patiently.
